AVOIDING ECOLOGICAL SURPRISE - LESSONS FROM LONG-STANDING COMMUNITIES

Increasingly ecologists have recognized the importance of sudden and unexpected changes in the natural environment-often called ''surprises.'' Organizational scholars have not developed a theory of how to avoid ecological surprise. This article suggests one way to develop such a theory. Using ecology, systems analysis. and a historical comparison of four communities, the article concludes that organizing and managing natural resources in part as community property can play a central role in avoiding surprises.