THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF INCOME AND POPULATION-GROWTH IN OHIO, 1950-1990

The regional dynamics literature has tended to pay more attention to regional variation of growth than to variation within states, although the latter defines the disaggregated realities that public officials and policy makers are most concerned with. This paper focuses on spatial variation of growth within a state. Using Ohio as a case study, two hypotheses are extracted from the literature. First, the theories of polarization and polarization reversal suggest that in the old industrial core the leading sector role of manufacturing has diminished in old manufacturing poles, and that income growth trends differ substantially between these old poles and new centres of development. Second, the theories of suburbanization and migration reversals suggest that population growth is contingent upon level of urbanization, and that the relationship has changed drastically between the pre-1970s, 1970s and post-1970s periods. The hypotheses are generally supported by the empirical analysis, which involves description of growth trends, and model construction and estimation using the expansion method. The findings provide evidence for spatial restructuring that is unfolding within the old industrial core, and illustrate the importance of linking dynamics at the regional and subregional levels. Finally, this paper discusses policy implications based on the research findings and suggests future research tasks.