A VALIDATION PROCESS FOR PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION COSTING PROGRAMS

被引：3

作者：

DELSON, JK ^{[1
]}

FENG, XM ^{[1
]}

SMITH, WC ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] OHIO UNIV,DEPT ELECT & COMP ENGN,ATHENS,OH 45701

来源：

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS | 1991年 / 6卷 / 03期

关键词：

PRODUCTION COSTING; MODEL VERIFICATION; VALIDATION; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; MONTE-CARLO METHODS; ENUMERATION; LOAD DURATION CURVES;

D O I：

10.1109/59.119286

中图分类号：

TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];

学科分类号：

0808 ; 0809 ;

摘要：

Validation of production cost forecasts has become an issue in California. Such programs cannot be validated by simply comparing predictions to outcomes. EPRI's chronological simulation program, BENCHMARK, can be used in a Monte Carlo mode to produce approximate production cost distributions. An exhaustive enumeration experiment can be conducted to measure their accuracy. An example is given for a system with seven thermal units. Three price scenarios were included on the cost of replacement power for generation shortfalls. Chronological simulation programs such as BENCHMARK can also be calibrated when used in the deterministic mode to match system operating policy. The Monte Carlo procedure can then be used to validate production costing results for large systems with some assurance. Cumulative probability distribution curves produced in this process also present useful information for decision making.

引用

页码：1326 / 1336

页数：11

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