UNANIMITY AND COMPROMISE AMONG PROBABILITY FORECASTERS

被引：31

作者：

CLEMEN, RT

WINKLER, RL

机构：

[1] DUKE UNIV,INST STAT & DECIS SCI,DURHAM,NC 27706

[2] DUKE UNIV,FUQUA SCH BUSINESS,DURHAM,NC 27706

来源：

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | 1990年 / 36卷 / 07期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

引用

页码：767 / 779

页数：13

共 20 条

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[3]

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[4] COMBINING ECONOMIC FORECASTS [J].

CLEMEN, RT ;

WINKLER, RL .

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[5] CALIBRATION AND THE EXPERT PROBLEM [J].

FRENCH, S .

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, 1986, 32 (03) :315-321

[6] CONSENSUS OF OPINION [J].

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EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, 1981, 7 (04) :332-340

[7]

French S., 1985, BAYESIAN STAT, V2, P183

[8] MODELING EXPERT JUDGMENTS FOR BAYESIAN UPDATING [J].

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SCHERVISH, MJ .

ANNALS OF STATISTICS, 1985, 13 (03) :1198-1212

[9]

Genest C., 1986, STAT SCI, V1, P114, DOI DOI 10.1214/SS/1177013825

[10]

Granger C. W.J., 1977, FORECASTING EC TIME

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