ON THE CAUSES OF LANDSLIDES - HUMAN ACTIVITIES, PERCEPTION, AND NATURAL PROCESSES

Conceptual equations are presented for the net benefits, total risk, and total vulnerability associated with hazard zone occupation. It is shown that, as they are polycausal phenomena, landslides require a more sophisticated approach to this form of analysis than that employed for most other forms of hazard. Three examples of landsliding are examined. At Cuyocuyo, in the Peruvian Cordillera Oriental, slope instability is virtually inevitable, but human intervention may be disturbing some very fragile natural equilibria. At Calciano, in southern Italy, deforestation has resulted in a mudflow disaster, although man-made factors are not the only causes at work. Finally, in the Valle dell'Orco (also in southern Italy) demographic and agrarian change have aided the partial metamorphosis of the catchment into a large-scale mudflow complex (although the longer-term causes are natural, tectonic ones). These examples illustrate parts of the continuum that extends from dominant natural to dominant anthropogenic causes. Human intervention has played a key role in stimulating the natural antecedents of landslides occurring in the study areas. It is concluded that risk perception has not been wide enough to promote adequate risk mitigation, in part because of a failure properly to conceive of landslides as polycausal phenomena, in which man-made causes effectively cannot-and should not-be separated from natural ones.