The two stages I, II are studied by using recent nonlinear theory and then compared with the experiments of Nishioka et al. (1979) on the transition of plane Poiseuille flow. The first stage I starts at low amplitude from warped input. which is deformed through weakly nonlinear interaction into a blow-up in amplitude and phase accompanied by spanwise focusing into streets. This leads into the strongly nonlinear stage II. It holds for a broad range of interactive boundary layers and related flows, to all of which the nonlinear break-up criterion applies. The experimental comparisons on I, II for channel flow overall show encouraging quantitative agreement, supporting recent comparisons (in the boundary-layer setting) of the description of stage I in Stewart & Smith (1992) with the experiments of Klebanoff & Tidstrom (1959) and of the break-up criterion of Smith (1988 a) with the computations of Peridier et al. (1991 a, b).