AUTOMATED DISCOVERY IN MANAGERIAL PROBLEM FORMULATION - FORMATION OF CAUSAL HYPOTHESES FOR COGNITIVE MAPPING

被引:9
作者
BILLMAN, B [1 ]
COURTNEY, JF [1 ]
机构
[1] TEXAS A&M UNIV SYST,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,COLL STN,TX 77843
关键词
D O I
10.1111/j.1540-5915.1993.tb00460.x
中图分类号
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要
Development of knowledge acquisition techniques known as automated discovery systems has occurred in deep and narrow domains of knowledge. Automated discovery is the generation of new knowledge by a computer system on its own, without the help of another knowledge source. This paper describes research and validation of an automated discovery system for a wide and shallow domain-business management. The system continues recent advances in expert systems research which have enhanced cognitive mapping, a problem formulation tool. The system perceives the behavior of distal variables in the environment through probabilistic cues-to-causality, and generates previously unknown hypotheses by aggregating the probabilities into a single criterion of causal relatedness. The system is validated against the source code of a simulated managerial environment, and causal relationships posited by decision makers experienced in the play of the gaming simulator.
引用
收藏
页码:23 / 41
页数:19
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