INTEGRATING MULTIPLE LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT MODELS INTO OPTIMIZATION METHODOLOGIES FOR ACID-RAIN POLICY ANALYSIS

This paper addresses certain complications inherent in developing efficient acid rain control strategies given that our knowledge of the physics and chemistry of long-range pollutant transport and transformation is imprecise. This imprecision (or uncertainty) translates, in a sense, into risk. We seek here to demonstrate that there are currently available methods to better define this risk and provide a basis for decision-making. More specifically, these methods involve chance-constrained stochastic programming techniques. A distinguishing characteristic of the approach is our use of the output from multiple long-range transport models to develop probabilistic descriptors of transport/transformation phenomena. © 1990.