A temporal analysis of behavioural brand loyalty among urban Chinese consumers

Chinese marketing is evolving, and this is having a dramatic influence on the incomes and spending patterns of consumers. Set against these longer-run trends, the contribution of this paper is to examine the year-on-year persistence of brand purchasing and behavioural brand loyalty in packaged goods markets in China. Revealed preference data for two product categories (toothpaste and soy sauce) in two contrasting cities (Shanghai and Xi'an) are analysed, with particular attention being paid to whether brand purchasing and behavioural brand loyalty are invariant over a five-year period. Conceptually, the NBD-Dirichlet model of brand choice and purchase incidence is employed. Analysis shows that patterns found in the Chinese data are quite similar to those reported previously for Western markets, with invariant results over time - notwithstanding supplyside and demand-side changes over the study period. In particular, the double jeopardy effect and multi-brand loyalty are consistently observed in the toothpaste and soy-sauce markets in both cities over the full five-year period. Results distinct to the Chinese market are also identified: exclusive brand loyalty appears to be declining in favour of multi-brand loyalty, and there are between-city differences in the magnitude of this decline.