PREFERENCE AND BELIEF - AMBIGUITY AND COMPETENCE IN CHOICE UNDER UNCERTAINTY

被引:761
作者
HEATH, C
TVERSKY, A
机构
[1] Department of Psychology, Stanford University, Stanford, 94305-2130, CA, Jordan Hall
关键词
AMBIGUITY; UNCERTAINTY; PREFERENCES;
D O I
10.1007/BF00057884
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
We investigate the relation between judgments of probability and preferences between bets. A series of experiments provides support for the competence hypothesis that people prefer betting on their own judgment over an equiprobable chance event when they consider themselves knowledgeable, but not otherwise. They even pay a significant premium to bet on their judgments. These data connot be explained by aversion to ambiguity, because judgmental probabilities are more ambiguous than chance events. We interpret the results in terms of the attribution of credit and blame. The possibility of inferring beliefs from preferences is questioned.1 © 1991 Kluwer Academic Publishers.
引用
收藏
页码:5 / 28
页数:24
相关论文
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