THE USE OF PROBABILITY TECHNIQUES IN VALUE-BASED PLANNING

Present techniques used in value-based planning do not properly represent neither the durations of capacity outage nor the effects of outage on post-interruption demand. Generation outage models do not relate the expected quantum of shortages to particular durations of outage. A model is proposed to compute this expectation by using the generator outage statistics in its entirety. The application of this model to the IEEE test system gave different results, depending on which outage cost data were used. Consequently, there is a need for a uniform procedure to report outage costs. A ''bottom-up'' procedure based on end use is proposed as a possibility.