MODELING THE ROLE OF CLIMATE, VEGETATION AND PEDOGENESIS IN SHALLOW TRANSLATIONAL HILLSLOPE FAILURE

Recent research in geomorphology has considered the significance of progressive pedogenesis and climatic change to slope failure initiation for the Holocene, using physically based models. To date, the significance of vegetation change to slope stability has been largely unexplored through modelling, since available physically based models cannot consider vegetation effects directly. To address the existing deficiency this paper adapts, parameterizes and applies a physically based model of slope hydrology and stability to the combined effect of vegetation change and progessive pedogenesis on slope failure initiation. There is considerable debate in the literature concerning the relative significance of climatic change and vegetation modification to slope failure initiation in the Holocene. This paper uses the model to provide additional evidence for situations in which either climatic or vegetation change is significant to slope failure, depending on the prevailing degree of soil development. The results indicate that young podsols appear to be stable under all the climatic and vegetation conditions considered, but mature podsols may be susceptible to failure. Both climate and vegetation influence slope stability, but their relative significance depends on the stage of soil development. In particular, the stability of young soils is influenced considerably by vegetation, while climate assumes greater significance in mature soils. It is recognized that this conclusion is limited to freely draining podsol profiles, and that more research is needed to consider other soil type and vegetation combinations.