SOURCES OF CHANGE IN INDUSTRIAL ELECTRICITY USE IN THE TAIWAN ECONOMY, 1976-86

This paper applies an input-output structural decomposition model in order to analyse the sources of change in the 1976 to 1986 electricity demands of the industrial sectors in Taiwan. Various types of demand shifts, technical substitutions and technological changes are identified. The relative importance of 14 mutually exclusive sources of change is evaluated. The results indicate that, over the course of the study period, while economic growth had the dominant impact on electricity use, followed in importance by substitution effects, effects due to technological change had an adverse effect, being much weaker than those resulting from economic growth and substitution effects. It is expected that this pattern will remain unchanged in the foreseeable future; hence, industrial electricity demand in Taiwan will continue to grow.