LONG-TERM CHANGES IN THE POPULATION OF EURYTEMORA-AFFINIS (COPEPODA, CALANOIDA) IN THE GIRONDE ESTUARY (1978-1992)

Long-term changes in the population of Eurytemora affinis were investigated during 15 years (1978-1992) at a fixed station in the Gironde estuary (South West France). Total numbers, sex-ratio, % ovigerous females, proportion of copepodites and clutch-size were taken into account and their long-term distribution was related to temperature, river flow, salinity, suspended matter and chlorophyll a concentrations after the seasonal effect was removed for all variables. There was a great decrease of the river flow during the period of investigation, due to a general deficit in pluviosity. On the contrary, the general trend for salinity was an increase from 1978 to 1992. The same pattern was observed for chlorophyll, indicating an intrusion of marine phytoplankton. Water temperature increased significantly during the study period, following the general increase in air temperature observed in the area. For the suspended particulate matter (SPM), an increase was observed between 1978 and 1981-1982, then a very sharp decrease occurred from 1984 onwards. Numbers of E. affinis were inversely correlated with temperature and salinity, and positively correlated with the river flow. E. affinis was negatively correlated with chlorophyll concentration because of the covariation with salinity. No clear long-term trend was observed for the sex-ratio. A significant correlation was found between females carrying egg-sacs and SPM concentration, probably due to a decrease of the predation pressure in very turbid waters. The percentages of copepodites tended to decrease with time and were inversely correlated with temperature. Clutch-size significantly decreased during the 15-year period. This trend was mainly explained by temperature and salinity. It is concluded that, in the absence of strong human alteration in the Gironde estuary the long-term distribution of zooplankton can be explained by the natural environmental variability. The dominant factors are the river flow which governs the movement of the populations along the estuary and the temperature which influences the reproductive processes. Any change in climate will have consequences on the pelagic community.