RCEP or TPP? An Empirical Analysis Based on Global Experience

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are two of the most discussed preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in the 21st century. However, the future of these PTAswhether they will be implementedstill remains mired in debate. This paper empirically explores various factors contributing to the development of the agreements based on the recent patterns of multilateral PTAs across the globe. It also discusses the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), for which negotiations have just begun among the TPP members, without the United States. The analysis reveals both political and economic factors that affect the complex situation surrounding these PTAs. In addition, a trilateral PTA among China, Japan, and South Korea may help promote the implementation of the RCEP. The chances of the CPTPP forming are higher than that of the TPP, which means the TPP is likely to form without the United States.