A CRITIQUE OF LIFETIME PREDICTION OF POLYMERS BY THERMAL-ANALYSIS

Attempts are made to use kinetics parameters from thermal decomposition experiments at high temperatures to predict service lifetimes of polymeric materials at lower temperatures. However, besides the obvious measurement and extrapolation errors (which can be considerable), there are two fundamental reasons why quantitative long range extrapolations can not be made for complex condensed phase systems. They are: 1) Arrhenius kinetics parameters can not be extrapolated through phase transitions or softening temperatures; 2) Arrhenius kinetics parameters can not be extrapolated through the ceiling temperature region. Satisfactory lifetime prediction methods can be developed only after a thorough analysis of the causes of service failure. A real method has been taken from literature to illustrate the correct procedures.