A DEVELOPMENTAL STUDY OF SEQUENCE STRUCTURE IN BINARY PREDICTION

Sixteen groups of 20 Ss each were run individually in a binary prediction situation with each alternative occurring equally often. Four age groups were employed: Ss were either in kindergarten, second, fourth, or sixth grades. For half the Ss at each age level the events occurred in runs of either 1 or 5; the other Ss observed events which occurred in runs of either 4 or 5. The probability of occurrence of the long run (β) was also manipulated: for half the Ss receiving each set of run lengths there were equal numbers of short and long runs (β = .5); for the other Ss β = .2. The results indicated that all groups showed some sensitivity to run length characteristics. However, errors of all types decreased as age increased, and 4-5 sequences were followed more accurately than 1-5 sequences. The results were discussed in terms of their implications for a general model of binary choice behavior. © 1969.