REVISED MODELS OF THE RALLY PHENOMENON - THE CASE OF THE CARTER PRESIDENCY

被引：21

作者：

CALLAGHAN, KJ ^{[1
]}

VIRTANEN, S ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] RUTGERS UNIV,NEW BRUNSWICK,NJ 08903

来源：

JOURNAL OF POLITICS | 1993年 / 55卷 / 03期

关键词：

D O I：

10.2307/2131999

中图分类号：

D0 [政治学、政治理论];

学科分类号：

0302 ; 030201 ;

摘要：

This research note reports an examination of presidential approval ratings during the Iran hostage crisis. Models of intervention and transfer function are estimated by way of Box-Jenkins and Box-Tiao analysis using Gallup opinion data from january 1976 to December 1979. Although it is fairly well accepted that the hostage crisis precipitated a ''rally-round-the-flag'' effect for President Carter, an examination of popularity dynamics reveals the unique influence of the crisis on Independents, a finding that suggests the need to revise the traditional view of the rally phenomenon.

引用

页码：756 / 764

页数：9

共 27 条

[1]

Abramson P. R., 1983, POLITICAL ATTITUDES

[2]

[Anonymous], 1986, GOING PUBLIC NEW STR

[3] INTERVENTION ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS TO ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS [J].