The Durability of Political Goods? Evidence from Nigeria's New Democracy

A conventional argument suggests that, for new democracies to survive, citizens must receive benefits of socioeconomic development. Yet an emerging literature shows that, following democratic transitions, the delivery of political goods such as order, civil rights and good governance, can sustain a new regime, at least in the short run. But how long does any such honeymoon last? This article uses survey data over time to assess the durability of various types of public goods in shaping popular attitudes to democracy in Nigeria, a critical test case where democracy is under threat. We find that, even under unfavourable conditions, political goods are more durable than previously thought and that mass preferences for democracy do not require an economic miracle. To be sure, economic assessments of policy performance shape evolving views about the supply of democracy. Over time, however, political assessments of the trustworthiness of national leaders are equally important.