METHOD TO DETERMINE THE DURATION OF QUIESCENCE IN A SEISMIC GAP

The concept of seismic gap has been developed in recent years to identify areas which have not been active in the past few years and arethereforeconsidered to have potential for large earthquakes in the future. I propose an empirical method to determine the duration of quiescence in seismic gap by estimating slip which will occur when the gap ruptures. This method depends on rate of plate motionlength of seismic gapand empirical relationship between rupture length and seismic moment. For earthquakes which have occurred in previously identified gaps and for which duration of quiescence is knownthis method predicts quiescence time to within about 10 yearswhichconsidering errors in plate motion rateslength of seismic gapand empirical relationship involvedis very good. © 1979 by the Chinese Geophysical Society