A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF RADIONUCLIDES IN LAKE SYSTEMS

This paper describes a predictive model for the behavior of Cs-137 in lacustrine systems. The model was tested by comparing its predictions to contamination data collected in various lakes in Europe and North America. The migration of Cs-137 from catchment basin and from bottom sediments to lake water was discussed in detail; these two factors influence the time behavior of contamination in lake water. The contributions to the levels of radionuclide concentrations in water, due to the above factors, generally increase in the long run. The uncertainty of the model, used as a generic tool for prediction of the levels of contamination in lake water, was evaluated. Data sets of water contamination analyzed in the present work suggest that the model uncertainty, at a 68% confidence level is a factor 1.9.