The potential of information provision in a simulated road transport network with nonrecurrent congestion

This paper analyses the potential of advanced traveller information systems (ATIS) in a road network in which incidents are generated in a random fashion. A simulation model is applied in which the traffic flows are the aggregation of drivers' decisions. These decisions, in turn, are modelled using boundedly rational principles. The experiments performed focus on the relationship between the network wide performance, the level of market penetration, the quality of the information, and the en route switching propensity. The results indicate that if drivers behave according to boundedly rational principles without being provided with information in a road network with non-recurrent congestion, the road network will not be used efficiently in terms of travel time. In these circumstances, ATIS is useful. However, the commercial viability of ATIS might be frustrated by the quickly diminishing additional benefits to equipped drivers. Further, the complexity of the implications of ATIS is stressed by the strong interaction between, on the one hand, the level of market penetration, the quality of the information and the en route switching propensity and, on the other hand, the network wide performance.