INFERRED DEPTH OF CREEP ON THE HAYWARD FAULT, CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

A relation between creep rate at the surface trace of a fault, the depth to the bottom of the creeping zone, and the rate of stress accumulation on the fault is derived from Weertman's 1964 friction model of slip on a fault. A 5 +/- 1 km depth for the creeping zone on the Hayward fault is estimated from the measured creep rate (5 mm/yr) at the fault trace and the rate of stress increase on the upper segment of the fault trace inferred from geodetic measurements across the San Francisco Bay area. Although fault creep partially accommodates the secular slip rate on the Hayward fault, a slip deficit is accumulating equivalent to a magnitude 6.6 earthquake on each 40 km segment of the fault each century. Thus, the current behavior of the fault is consistent with its seismic history, which includes two moderate earthquakes in the mid-1800's.