DEMATERIALIZATION - LONG-TERM TRENDS IN THE INTENSITY OF USE OF MATERIALS AND ENERGY

The large capital requirements, long lead-times and political connotations of new resource exploitation, make long-term evaluations of resource requirements a fundamental issue in strategic policy choices. This article reviews long-term trends in the intensity of use of energy and materials, setting them within the conceptual framework of the theory of dematerialization. Prevailing trends are discussed in terms of the major determining factors-changes in the structure of final demand, increases in the efficiency of materials use, and the substitution of alternative materials. The article identifies the limits of the theory of dematerialization as an empirical forecasting tool and provides an assessment of its usefulness in the area of resources policy.