LONG-TERM PROGNOSIS AFTER MYOCARDIAL-INFARCTION - UNIVARIATE AND MULTIVARIATE-ANALYSIS OF CLINICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 1,000 PATIENTS

To examine the clinical outcome for patients with myocardial infarction and to analyze clinical predictors for longterm prognosis, 1,000 patients were studied retrospectively. Between January 1983 and December 1987, 1,002 consecutive patients with myocardial infarction, who resided in the Kyoto and Shiga districts, were reviewed after coronary arteriography, but in two patients medical records were not located. During 3.3 +/- 2.0 years, 75 patients died of cardiac causes and 301 ex perienced cardiac events (death, reinfarction, and revascularization). Overall 5-year cardiac mortality was 8% and cardiac event rate was 35%. Among determinants of age, smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, postinfarction angina, serious arrhythmia, mitral regurgitation, digitalis and diuretics administration, ejection fraction (EF), left main trunk disease, and number of diseased coronary arteries selected by univariate analysis, multivariate analysis revealed that heart failure, EF, number of coronary vessel disease, diabetes, and mitral regurgitation were the important predictors of cardiac death. For cardiac events, multivariate analysis demonstrated that the number of diseased coronaries, postinfarction angina and left main trunk disease were significant predictors. Therefore, impaired left ventricular function and myocardial ischemia appear to be important markers for cardiac death, but impaired left ventricular function does not appear to be a predictor for cardiac events. The data obtained in this study will be useful in the assessment of patients with myocardial infarction and will be of clinical significance in predicting mortality and cardiac events.