A POPULATION-MODEL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF THE SAIGA ANTELOPE

1. In order to describe the population dynamics of the saiga antelope adequately, a discrete time, stochastic age-structured model is needed. 2. Management strategies investigated are: taking a proportion of the population or a constant number of individuals; selecting the individuals killed by age and sex or harvesting in the proportions found in the population; harvesting every year, every other year or only in years with a good climate. These options are chosen with reference to the management strategies that were in place before the collapse of the Soviet Union. 3. Both the mean population size and yield and their coefficients of variation are important for an effective management strategy. The safest strategy is to hunt only in good years, with a fairly high proportion of males in the harvest. A constant escapement policy is suggested as a practical strategy for keeping both yield and population security high. 4. A high proportion of adult males in the harvest increases yield and decreases population variation. Very high or low proportions of males in the harvest could lead to population collapse. Low proportions of males in the harvest lead to reduced fecundity as females are removed from the population, very high proportions in the harvest to a lack of breeding males. 5. The results are sensitive to assumptions about the probability of a drought occurring, for which few data are available. This increases the importance of taking climate into account in any management strategy adopted.