PREDICTORS OF SURVIVAL IN NEONATES WITH CRITICAL AORTIC-STENOSIS

Background. Failure of infants with critical aortic stenosis to survive after adequate valvotomy despite a left ventricular size that appears to be adequate indicates that additional preoperative anatomic features may contribute to mortality. Methods and Results. Discriminant analysis was used to determine which of several echocar-diographically measured left heart structures were independent predictors of survival after valvotomy for neonatal critical aortic stenosis. It was possible to predict outcome after classic valvotomy (two-ventricle-type repair) with 95% accuracy based on mitral valve area, long-axis dimension of the left ventricle relative to the long-axis dimension of the heart, diameter of the aortic root, and body surface area. Left ventricular volume was not a major determinant in this study, in part because patients who had initial valvotomy had been preselected in favor of an adequately sized left ventricle. Patients with multiple small left ventricular structures were found to have significantly improved survival after initial Norwood operation. In contrast, balloon valvotomy with subsequent Norwood procedure was usually unsuccessful. Conclusions. The adverse effects of small inflow, outflow, and/or cavity size of the left ventricle are cumulative. The accuracy of prediction of outcome based only on preoperative anatomy indicates that adequacy of valvotomy is not generally a limiting factor for survival in this group of patients. It is possible to identify subjects whose chance of survival is better after a Norwood procedure rather than valvotomy, even if left ventricular volume is not critically small.