PLOTTING POSITIONS FOR HISTORICAL FLOODS AND THEIR PRECISION

被引:68
作者
HIRSCH, RM [1 ]
STEDINGER, JR [1 ]
机构
[1] CORNELL UNIV,DEPT ENVIRONM ENGN,ITHACA,NY 14853
关键词
DATA PROCESSING - Sampling - PROBABILITY - Evaluation;
D O I
10.1029/WR023i004p00715
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Plotting positions are needed for situations where, in addition to a systematically recorded annual flood series, one would have a record of any large floods which occurred during an extended historical period, if they occurred. Many of the published estimators are based on uncensored sampling theory which is not appropriate for such data sets. Here such historical and systematic flood records are viewed as resulting from a partially censored sampling experiment. Plotting positions are derived for such experiments using both classical and Bayesian viewpoints. In general, it is impossible to construct highly accurate estimates of the exceedance probabilities of the largest floods using only their rank, the number of observed historical floods, and the lengths of the historical period and the systematic record. For the largest flood, the coefficient of variation of exceedance-probability estimators is of the order of 1, as it is for complete systematic records.
引用
收藏
页码:715 / 727
页数:13
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