MEASLES AS A CASE-STUDY IN NONLINEAR FORECASTING AND CHAOS

被引:62
作者
GRENFELL, BT
KLECZKOWSKI, A
ELLNER, SP
BOLKER, BM
机构
[1] UNIV CAMBRIDGE, DEPT PLANT SCI, CAMBRIDGE CB2 3EA, ENGLAND
[2] N CAROLINA STATE UNIV, DEPT STAT, RALEIGH, NC 27695 USA
[3] PRINCETON UNIV, DEPT ECOL & EVOLUT BIOL, PRINCETON, NJ 08544 USA
来源
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES | 1994年 / 348卷 / 1688期
关键词
D O I
10.1098/rsta.1994.0108
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
This paper uses measles incidence in developed countries as the basis of a case study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos. It uses a combination of epidemiological modelling and nonlinear forecasting to explore a range of issues relating to the predictability of measles before and after the advent of mass vaccination. A comparison of the pre-vaccination self-predictability of measles in England and Wales indicates relatively high predictability of these predominantly biennial epidemic series, compared to New York City, which shows mixtures of one-, two- and three-year epidemics. This analysis also indicates the importance of choosing correct embeddings to avoid bias in prediction. Forecasting for English cities indicates significant spatial heterogeneity in predictability before vaccination and an overall drop in predictability during the vaccination era. The interpretation of predictions of observed measles series by epidemiological models is explored and areas for refinement of current models discussed.
引用
收藏
页码:515 / 530
页数:16
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