25-YEAR MORTALITY FOLLOW-UP IN THE BELGIAN BANK STUDY

Two cohorts of male bank employees aged 40-59 at baseline and free of coronary heart disease were pooled and followed during 25 years for all-cause and coronary mortality. The vital status was known for all 1,227 subjects, but in both banks, 8% of all deaths occurred without any clue to a possible cause. All-cause and coronary mortality were 3 6.9 and 10. 5 per 100 subjects, respectively. In bivariate analysis (adjusting for age), systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol and cigarette smoking predicted all-cause mortality. The same variables predicted coronary mortality. Body mass index was neither a predictor of all-cause nor of coronary mortality. In multivariate analysis, age, systolic blood pressure and cigarette smoking predicted independently all-cause mortality whereas the same variables and serum cholesterol predicted coronary mortality. For coronary mortality, the odds ratio (OR) of systolic blood pressure greater-than-or-equal-to 160 against < 140 mm Hg was 2.68 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.41-5.08). The OR for subjects with baseline serum cholesterol greater-than-or-equal-to 260 versus < 260 mg/dl was 1. 68 (95 % CI: 1. 31-2.5 1). The OR for cigarette smokers versus never smokers was 2.54 (95% CI: 1.394. 64). Age-adjusted relative risk for all-cause mortality for subjects in the highest versus the lowest quintile of a multiple logistic function was 1.72 whereas for coronary mortality the relative risk was 4.94. These results confirm the long-term predictive power of the three major modifiable coronary risk factors when measured once in middle-aged male subjects.