Predictability Portraits for Chaotic Motions

被引：19

作者：

Doerner, R. ^{[1
]}

Huebinger, B. ^{[1
]}

Martienssen, W. ^{[1
]}

Grossmann, S. ^{[2
]}

Thomae, S. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Frankfurt, Inst Phys, Frankfurt, Germany

[2] Univ Philippines, Fachbereich Phys, Marburg, Germany

[3] Univ Essen Gesamthsch, D-45122 Essen, Germany

来源：

CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS | 1991年 / 1卷 / 06期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/0960-0779(91)90044-A

中图分类号：

O1 [数学];

学科分类号：

0701 ; 070101 ;

摘要：

The reliability of forecasts for chaotic motions varies with the state of the dynamical system. We define quantities that measure predictability and investigate their dependence on the initial state for different forecasting times. Two model systems are investigated, a driven damped pendulum and the Lorenz system. We use two different numerical methods to analyse the effect of finite resolution in determining the initial conditions on the reliability of forecasts. For the pendulum we also compare numerical forecasts with experimental data.

引用

页码：553 / 571

页数：19

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