WISHFUL THINKING - AGAINST ALL ODDS

Wishful thinking (WT)-defined as predicting a more favorable outcome for a preferred team-was investigated in soccer stadia and betting stations in Israel. High levels of WT were found in all contexts investigated. As hypothesized, the intensity of WT varied between contexts as a function of the "legitimacy" of emotionalism and subjectivity. and within each context as a function of self-defined levels of fanhood and preference. An explicit instruction to be objective did not reduce WT in predicting game outcomes. Paid betting forms represented an ecologically valid voluntary behavior most contradictory of wishful thinking, since bettors are strongly motivated to be objective and impartial. The results showed that fans could not overcome their wishful thinking, betting emotionally and against their financial interest.