A RECONSIDERATION OF EFFECT OF ENERGY SCARCITY ON ECONOMIC-GROWTH

This analysis is concerned with the effect of energy scarcity on economic growth in the U.S. After defining the notion of scarcity and introducing measures of scarcity (unit costs and relative energy price), changes in the trend in resource scarcity for NG, bituminous coal, anthracite coal, and crude oil over the most recent three decades are investigated. Each of the energy resources became a significantly scarcer resource during the decade of the 1970s in the Malthusian Stock Scarcity and Malthusian Flow Scarcity sense. Unit costs exhibit a similar change for NG and crude oil but not for bituminous and anthracte coals. The situation reversed itself during the 1980s. NG, bituminous and anthracite coals, and crude oil all became significantly less scarce resources during the decade of the 1980s than they had been during the 1970s, i.e. the increase in scarcity as measured by relative energy prices observed during the decade of the 1970s was not reversed completely during the 1980s for NG and crude oil. Unit costs for NG and crude oil demonstrate similar patterns. Given that change has taken place, it has implications for future economic growth to the extent resource scarcity and economic growth are interrelated. To see whether this is a relevant concern, subsequent to the examination of changing resource scarcity trends, an objective effort is made to identify a long run equilibrium relationship between energy scarcity and economic growth. Relying on cointegration techniques, only for crude oil is there a suggestion that resource scarcity has affected economic growth in the U.S. over the period 1889-1992.