THE PROCESS OF INTERNATIONAL MEDIATION - AN ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANTS OF SUCCESSFUL AND UNSUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES

This article examines the relevance and importance of mediation in the management of international disputes. It utilises an original data set on disputes and mediation events to analyse systematically the factors and conditions associated with successful mediation. Four clusters of factors, and their relative impact on mediation, are explored. These are: (a) factors concerning the dispute itself, (b) factors concerning the parties in dispute, (c) factors pertaining to the mediator, and (d) factors pertaining to mediation behaviour. Multiple regression analysis reveals that the level of hostility, as measured by fatalities, has the greatest (negative) impact on the chances of successful mediation. Other variables that significantly affect mediation success include a history of friendly relations, socio-cultural similarity, neutral grounds, and an active mediation strategy.