CLINICAL PREDICTION OF OUTCOME IN SCHIZOPHRENIA

The results show a statistically significant prospective relationship between an initial assessment of the severity of the formal characteristics of schizophrenic thought disorder and duration of hospital stay in patients whose clinical picture has not yet been altered by tranquilizing drugs. A weighted four-point scale of severity of thought disorder is offered, and its limitations as a predictor of outcome are discussed. While the ability to abstract on proverbs was found to be related to outcome, it is suggested that this is a spurious relationship resulting from limitations of the standard scoring technique. The recommendation is made that a longer period of clinical examination should be allowed before instituting drug therapy, since being able to predict those patients who are or are not likely to recover quickly is essential in evaluating treatment methods. While tranquilizers have been of great therapeutic usefulness they alter and mask the clinical picture and therefore represent a diagnostic and prognostic barrier. © 1969.