A GAUSS-MARKOV LOAD MODEL FOR APPLICATION IN RISK-EVALUATION AND PRODUCTION SIMULATION

Load uncertainty contributes to system operational risk; thus the study of system operating reserve or unit commitment risk requires a load model that includes the uncertainty in load as well as the variation with time. This paper proposes a Gauss-Markov load model, and this random process model includes both the time variation and the uncertainty in load. This load model is used to predict, conditional on what is known at a previous hour, the mean and the variance of the system hourly load. This mean and variance are required for a system operating reserve study and a broad spectrum of production simulations. In this paper, the proposed load model is first described, then the model is justified, and finally the model is illustrated via an example.