PATTERNS OF PREDICTABILITY IN CORAL-REEF COMMUNITY STRUCTURE

The question of whether population numbers are predictable in coral reef communities is confronted directly by trying to predict abundances of benthic taxa both within and between two reefs on the central Great Barrier Reef [Australia]. Using models derived via the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH), taxon abundances were found to be more predictable at Davies Reef than at Myrmidon Reef and a significant number of taxa showed consistent predictability patterns in all tests. For most taxa, the predictability of benthic abundances increased steadily with increasing spatial scale. Water depth figured prominently in almost all of the models obtained, emphasizing its importance as a physical determinant of local taxon abundances.