A STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC-PROGRAMMING FRAMEWORK FOR WEED-CONTROL DECISION-MAKING - AN APPLICATION TO AVENA-FATUA L

被引：33

作者：

PANDEY, S

MEDD, RW

机构：

[1] Department of Agricultural Economics, School of Agriculture, The University of Western Australia, Nedlands

[2] Agricultural Research and Veterinary Centre, Orange, NSW 2800, Forest Road

来源：

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS | 1991年 / 6卷 / 02期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/0169-5150(91)90020-L

中图分类号：

F3 [农业经济];

学科分类号：

0202 ; 020205 ; 1203 ;

摘要：

This paper develops a stochastic multi-period decision model to analyse a continuous wheat cropping system infested by wild oats (Avena fatua L.), in southern Australia. The multi-period solutions is obtained by employing a dynamic programming model in conjunction with a bioeconomic simulation model. An empirically estimated dose response function is used to derive the optimal herbicide rate. Uncertainties due to environmental effects on the performance of herbicide and crop yields are modelled and optimal decision rules derived. The results indicate that substantial economic gains can be realised if herbicide dose decisions are taken by considering future profit effects of current decisions, as opposed to the more common approach of only considering the current-period effect.

引用

页码：115 / 128

页数：14

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