FORECASTING GLOBAL ENSO-RELATED CLIMATE ANOMALIES

被引:73
作者
BARNETT, TP
BENGTSSON, L
ARPE, K
FLUGEL, M
GRAHAM, N
LATIF, M
RITCHIE, J
ROECKNER, E
SCHLESE, U
SCHULZWEIDA, U
TYREE, M
机构
[1] Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
[2] Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, D-20146
[3] Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Hamburg, D-20146
关键词
D O I
10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.t01-3-00005.x
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Long-range global climate forecasts have been made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of the wintertime 500 mb height, surface air temperature and precipitation for seven large climatic events of the 1970 to 1990s by this two-tiered technique agree well in general with observations over many regions of the globe. The levels of agreement are high enough in some regions to have practical utility.
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页码:381 / 397
页数:17
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