LONGITUDINAL GOMPERTZIAN ANALYSIS OF PANCREATIC-CANCER MORTALITY IN THE UNITED-STATES, 1962-1987 - DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN COMPETITIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL-INFLUENCES UPON EVOLVING MORTALITY PATTERNS

Pancreatic cancer (PanC) is an extraordinarily lethal neoplasm that is currently the fifth leading cause of cancer death in the United States. Annual age-specific mortality rates for PanC in the U.S. from 1962 to 1987 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis. Age-specific PanC mortality rate distributions between age 30 and 60 years were determined by a common fixed intersect point and a variable competitive factor. The intersect point for PanC occurred at age 59.5 years and mortality rate 37.4 per 100 000 for men, and at age 53.2 years and mortality rate 7.9 per 100 000 for women. These intersect points are determined by genetic and environmental influences upon mortality. The observation that these points have remained fixed suggests that there has been no significant alteration in environmental etiopathogenic influences upon PanC mortality. Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis suggests that the emergence of PanC in the U.S. as a significant cause of cancer mortality has been the consequence of competitive influences upon PanC mortality dynamics.