BREAKING RECENT GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS

Global surface temperature was a record in 1988. What is the probability that this record will be surpassed in the next few years? Answers are provided given a variety of simple statistical models for temperature. The answers illustrate how record breaking is influenced by alternative model specifications. Estimates for the probability of a record are shown to range widely. If annual temperature is independent and identically distributed then a new record is unlikely But probabilities increase rapidly if there is a trend or autocorrelation. Estimates of the probability of a record using data on global temperature suggest that another record in the next few years would not be a rare event.