PREDICTING MORTALITY AND LENGTH OF STAY OF GERIATRIC-PATIENTS IN AN ACUTE CARE GENERAL-HOSPITAL

Three-hundred-eight geriatric patients (mean age = 76.7 yr, range = 70-94 yr) consecutively admitted to an acute care general hospital were followed up to identify the predictors of in-hospital mortality and long stay. Sociodemographic, medical, and functional data were collected within 24 hours from admission and their correlation with the outcomes assessed by logistic regression analysis. The following variables were shown to be independent predictors of death: use of more than 6 drugs (odds ratio = 3.04, confidence limits = 1.05-8.76); abnormal Mini-Mental State score (o.r. = 1.72, c.l. = 1.05-1.83); low ADL score (o.r. = 2.4, c.l. = 1.07-5.56). Extended stay was significantly and independently predicted by polypharmacy (o.r. = 1.94, c.l. = 1.18-3.2) and comorbidity (o.r. = 2.06, c.l. = 1.24-3.38). The mortality rates of patients with cognitive impairment and polypharmacy with or without functional impairment were 40% and 22%, respectively. The proposed method allows identification of high-risk geriatric inpatients by a simple medical and functional assessment on admission.