PROBABILITY OF FAILURE OF BRITTLE REDUNDANT STRUCTURAL SYSTEMS IN TIME

The probabilistic description of intermediate damage and ultimate collapse states and their evolution in time of brittle, redundant structure systems subject to Gaussian loading is studied. A time-dependent failure tree is developed. Single or multiple component failure probabilities are determined by the upcrossing approach using extensively modern FORM/SORM techniques for the necessary probability integrations. Two limiting internal load redistribution regimes, delayed load redistribution and immediate load redistribution eventually leading to progressive failures, are studied. The methodology is especially designed and suited for reliability problems connected with inspection and maintenance of structures.