PREDICTING EARLY AND INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTCOME OF CORONARY ANGIOPLASTY IN THE ELDERLY

Background. Although the technical success rate of coronary angioplasty in the elderly is high, very old patients have increased risk of procedure-related death and late recurrence of severe angina. We proposed to determine baseline variables that predict early and intermediate-term failure of Percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) in patients more than 65 so we could effectively stratify risk. Methods and Results. We studied 982 patients at least 65 years old who had urgent or elective PTCA (1980 through 1990). Follow-up (mean, 25 months) was obtained for all patients. Multiple baseline variables were analyzed with univariate and multivariate logistic regression to select independent ones to fit predictive models for in-hospital death or myocardial infarction (overall rate, 6.3%), total in-hospital adverse outcome (overall rate, 18.7%), cumulative survival free of myocardial infarction (overall rate, 15% at 3 years), and cumulative survival free of late nonfatal myocardial infarction, bypass surgery, repeat PTCA, or recurrent severe angina (overall rate, 47% at 3 years). The most heavily weighted parameter in the probability regression equation for each end point was the number of diseased coronary artery segments with at least 70% stenosis. Advanced age was less important. The number of concomitant medical illnesses was predictive of late outcome but not early in-hospital events. Lowest risk quintile versus highest risk quintile event rate was 2.9% versus 14% for acute myocardial infarction or death and 17.2% versus 29% for cumulative in-hospital events. For posthospital events at 3 years' follow-up, lowest risk quintile death or myocardial infarction rate was 4% versus 33% for highest risk quintile. For cumulative late adverse events at 3 years, the event rate was 28% versus 63% for the highest risk quintile. Conclusions. These results stratify patients at high and low risk of early and intermediate-term success after PTCA and identify elderly patients in whom PTCA is most appropriate.