THE INCIDENCE OF HIV-INFECTION AMONG MEN IN THE UNITED-STATES-ARMY RESERVE COMPONENTS, 1985-1991

Objective: To evaluate the incidence of HIV infection among men in the Army Reserve Components (RC) in the United States. Methods: A prospective follow-up evaluating HIV seroconversions among men in the RC. Men who were initially seronegative were followed over time and periodically retested. The duration of follow-up was measured for each individual. Date of seroconversion was estimated to be the mid-point between last negative and first positive test. Demographic characteristics were evaluated for association with seroconversion, and incidence density between 1985 and 1991 was examined. Results: We followed 733 622 RC men for 1988 622 person-years between 1985 and 1991, and identified 534 seroconversions. Demographic correlates of risk included racial/ethnic minorities, age between 20 and 34 years, never having married, residence in an area with a low median income, and residence in metropolitan areas with high incidence of AIDS. Among most of these groups, the incidence density did not change substantially or significantly from the period 1985-1987 to 1991. Conclusions: The patterns of HIV infection are generally similar to those for reported AIDS cases. The incidence density over time is consistent with projections that AIDS incidence will plateau in the United States in the mid- to late-1990s.