PROGNOSTIC SCORES FOR DETECTING A HIGH-RISK GROUP - ESTIMATING THE SENSITIVITY WHEN APPLIED TO NEW DATA

被引：16

作者：

PHILLIPS, AN ^{[1
]}

THOMPSON, SG ^{[1
]}

POCOCK, SJ ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] ROYAL FREE HOSP,SCH MED,DEPT CLIN EPIDEMIOL & GEN PRACTICE,LONDON NW3 2PF,ENGLAND

来源：

STATISTICS IN MEDICINE | 1990年 / 9卷 / 10期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1002/sim.4780091008

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The sensitivity of a prognostic scoring system will tend to be exaggerated if the scoring system is both derived and validated on the same data. This paper provides, by analogy to regression with error in an explanatory variable, an intuitive basis for the methodological results of Copas which seek to estimate the degree of such exaggeration. There was good agreement between Copas' results and those achieved in a series of cross‐validation exercises where logistic regression models predicting the risk of ischaemic heart disease were derived using data from the prospective British Regional Heart Study. When truly important variables were included, the exaggeration of the sensitivity increased as the number of cases of disease available decreased. It is concluded that Copas' method, which is easy to implement in practice, may be helpful in realistically anticipating the extent of such exaggeration, and that it can be usefully employed before pursuing a scoring system on newly collected data. Copyright © 1990 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

引用

页码：1189 / 1198

页数：10

共 15 条

[1]

Shaper A.G., Pocock S.J., Phillips A.N., Walker M., A scoring system to identify men at high risk of a heart attack, Health Trends, 19, pp. 37-39, (1987)

[2]

Shaper A.G., Pocock S.J., Phillips A.N., Walker M., Identifying men at high risk of heart attacks: Strategy for use in general practice, British Medical Journal, 293, pp. 474-479, (1986)

[3]

Efron B., How biased is the apparent error rate of a prediction rule?, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81, pp. 461-470, (1986)

[4]

Van Houwelingen J.C., Le Cessie S., Predictive value of statistical models, Statistics in Medicine, 9, (1990)

[5]

Snedecor G.W., Cochran W.G., Statistical Methods, pp. 171-172, (1980)

[6]

Copas J.B., Regression, prediction and shrinkage (with discussion), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 45, pp. 311-354, (1983)

[7]

Stone M., Cross‐validatory choice and assessment of statistical predictions, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 36, pp. 111-147, (1974)

[8]

Phillips A.N., Pocock S.J., Sample size requirements for prospective studies, with examples for coronary heart disease, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 42, pp. 639-648, (1989)

[9]

Thompson S.G., Predicting myocardial infarction, Lancet, 1, pp. 1021-1022, (1984)

[10]

McCarthy P.J., The use of balanced half‐sample replication in cross‐validation studies, Journal of the American Statistical Society, 44, pp. 596-604, (1976)

← 1 2 →