THE STABILITY OF CRIMINAL POTENTIAL FROM CHILDHOOD TO ADULTHOOD

This paper examines two alternative interpretations of the well-documented positive association between past and future criminal behavior. One is that prior participation has a genuine behavioral impact that increases the likelihood of future participation. The second is that there are stable, unmeasured differences in criminal potential across the population. Many general theories of crime can be interpreted as suggesting one of these interpretations. Based on an analysis of a panel data set that tracks a sample of males for over 20 years, the results suggest that the positive association is largely attributable to stable, unmeasured individual differences.