ESTIMATING THE INCIDENCE OF DEMENTIA IN THE COMMUNITY FROM PREVALENCE AND MORTALITY RESULTS

This paper reports a series of computer simulations of the incidence of dementia, and its relationship to age. The simulations use known prevalence and mortality data from a single source: Liverpool. Comparison is also made with additional UK, European, and international figures to add stability to the estimates. The paper concludes that with our present knowledge we can either model prevalence or incidence, but not both, and suggests that more information is especially needed for the older groups.