MODELS FOR FORECASTING HOSPITAL BED REQUIREMENTS IN THE ACUTE SECTOR

被引：31

作者：

FARMER, RDT ^{[1
]}

EMAMI, J ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] CHARING CROSS & WESTMINSTER MED SCH,DEPT COMMUNITY MED,17 HORSEFERRY RD,LONDON SW1P 2AR,ENGLAND

来源：

JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH | 1990年 / 44卷 / 04期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1136/jech.44.4.307

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Study objective - The aim was to evaluate the current approach to forecasting hospital bed requirements. Design - The study was a time series and regression analysis. The time series for mean duration of stay for general surgery in the age group 15-44 years (1969-1982) was used in the evaluation of different methods of forecasting future values of mean duration of stay and its subsequent use in the formation of hospital bed requirements. Results - It has been suggested that the simple trend fitting approach suffers from model specification error and imposes unjustified restrictions on the data. Time series approach (Box-Jenkins method) was shown to be a more appropriate way of modelling the data. Conclusion - The simple trend fitting approach is inferior to the time series approach in modelling hospital bed requirements.

引用

页码：307 / 312

页数：6