PANEL ESTIMATES OF MALE AND FEMALE JOB TURNOVER BEHAVIOR - CAN FEMALE NONQUITTERS BE IDENTIFIED

Using National Longitudinal Survey data, we estimate proportional hazard models in order to learn whether it is more difficult for employers to identify female nonquitters than male nonquitters. We find that women may be a higher risk than men in the overall sample because they are more likely to be "movers" for unobserved reasons. When we focus on a relatively recent birth cohort, however, we find that it is no longer difficult to identify female nonquitters. Unobserved heterogeneity becomes an insignificant factor among women, and virtually all determinants of turnover are observable at the time of hire.